Who Might Be Trump's VP Pick?
03:48 GMT 03.12.2023 (Updated: 04:02 GMT 03.12.2023)
© AFP 2023 / KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI
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As former US President Donald Trump’s seemingly unstoppable march toward the Republican nomination for President continues, some are starting to wonder who will join him on the ticket in November.
Typically, Vice Presidents are picked for one of two reasons: either as a deal with a primary opponent to entice them to drop out or as a tool to appeal to a base of voters the candidate doesn’t appeal to.
It does not appear that the 2024 Republican primary will pose any significant challenge to Trump. Outside of a surprise surge by either Nikki Haley or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, or a potential prison sentence, Trump looks poised to cruise to the nomination.
23 October 2023, 02:25 GMT
That seemingly would leave only the candidate’s appeal to voters as the deciding factor for the Trump campaign, but there is an additional factor that is unique to Trump: loyalty.
Trump has consistently described those who have spoken out against him as disloyal, including his former running mate, Mike Pence, who suspended his campaign for President in October. Trump has made clear that if elected again, he won’t be appointing the same conventional Republicans he filled his cabinet with in 2016.
With those two qualifications in mind, who are the frontrunners to join Trump at the top of the ballot in November next year?
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
Kristi Noem, Republican governor of South Dakota
© AP Photo / James Nord
Noem is not well known on the national stage, but she ticks the loyalty box on her resume. She endorsed Trump already and has received a nod as a potential candidate by Trump. When asked if he would consider her, Trump told a reporter that he “absolutely” would “in a heartbeat.”
Politically, they match up on social issues, with Noem enacting strict abortion limits in her state and outlawing transgender women from participating in female sports leagues in state schools.
While, as a Governor, Noem has never voted on Ukraine aid, she has called it “Europe’s fight, not ours.” Trump previously said he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours.
Her relative youth and gender could help the Trump ticket appeal to women, though Noem’s relatively small name value and abortion legislation may counteract that.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. speaks to supporters after winning his Senate race over challengers Jill Bossi and Joyce Dickerson, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014
© AP Photo / Mic Smith
Scott ticks a lot of the appeal boxes for the Trump campaign. As a Senator in South Carolina, he would theoretically head off any challenge by current US President Joe Biden in the state. While Trump won South Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, Biden performed better there than Hillary Clinton and turned around his 2020 primary campaign in the state.
Trump and Scott also have a history of working together, collaborating on a program to bring opportunity zones to low-income areas.
However, the loyalty test is a mixed bag. Scott, who recently suspended his campaign for President, declined to follow his fellow Republicans’ lead in criticizing Trump during the GOP debates earlier this year, and Trump returned that in kind by not attacking Scott. However, when Scott dropped out in November, he declined to endorse any other candidate and implied that he was not interested in running as Vice President.
There are also questions about his appeal. On the face of it, Scott, an African American, should help Trump increase his small but growing support among black voters. However, in a poll pitting various potential Republican candidates against Biden, Scott performed the worst among black voters.
Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders
White House deputy press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders talks to the media during the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington
© AP Photo / Andrew Harnik
The former Press Secretary for the Trump administration, Huckabee left the White House on good terms and followed her father, Mike Huckabee, to the Governor's mansion in Arkansas. Huckabee easily passes the loyalty test, having consistently defended the former president in the press at every opportunity.
The question then becomes her appeal. From a staunchly conservative state that Trump won by more than 27 points in 2020, Huckabee seems to have little to offer the Trump campaign outside of loyalty.
Even within her state, there are signs that Huckabee’s star may be fading, a recent poll put her approval rating at 48%, the lowest for an Arkansas Governor since her father polled 47% in 2003.
Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga.
© AP Photo / J. Scott Applewhite
Another candidate, like Huckabee, whose potential hinges almost entirely on her steadfast loyalty to the former President.
Greene has been a staunch defender of the former president, supporting his assertion that the 2020 Presidential election was stolen and has been an outspoken defender of Trump supporters who were arrested during the January 6, 2021 riots on the Capitol building.
However, she was booted from the powerful House Freedom Caucus for her support of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. While she avoided Trump’s scorn for her consistent support of and friendship with McCarthy, she did anger some of the Trump wing of the party, including former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, who suggested that someone primary her.
If there is one attribute of Taylor-Greene outside of her loyalty to Trump, it's her home state. Trump narrowly lost Georgia in 2020.
But a gain there may mean a loss elsewhere. Taylor-Greene is unpopular with the voting population as a whole and in a September poll asking 2020 Trump voters who they’d like to be Trump’s VP pick, only 1% selected Taylor-Greene.
Florida Representative Byron Donalds
U.S. Congressman Byron Donalds speaking with attendees at the 2021 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida.
CC BY-SA 2.0 / Gage Skidmore /
A rapidly rising star in the Republican party, Donalds first entered the national public consciousness when he was the protest pick for Republicans opposed to McCarthy’s speakership election in January. That led to him briefly becoming a serious candidate for the position in October, a position eventually awarded to Mike Johnson (R-LA).
Donalds’ loyalty to Trump is unquestioned. He voted with Trump 100% of the time during the Trump presidency and is part of the House Ethics Committee’s investigation into Biden.
Able to speak with a populist voice and present himself as an outsider, Donalds is likely to appeal to both independents and Trump’s support base. As an African American, he also stands to help Trump grow his support among Black voters, which is already higher than what is typical for a Republican.
Former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley
President Donald Trump meets with outgoing U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018, in Washington
© AP Photo / Evan Vucci
If there is one candidate Trump will pick to avoid a primary challenge, it is Nikki Haley. While DeSantis is running close to Haley for second place, Haley is set up in the primary to be a potentially formidable challenger. As the former governor of South Carolina, she is positioned to perform well in that state.
If she can build momentum in the first two states of Iowa and New Hampshire and carry that into a strong second in South Carolina or win the state outright, Trump may feel pressure to get her out of the race.
Outside of that possibility, there seems little chance Trump will tap Haley as his VP. While the two did work together during his Presidency, Trump appointed her as the US Ambassador to the UN, their relationship has since soured. In September, Trump referred to her as “Birdbrain Nikki Haley” and said that she has “No loyalty.” He also seemingly ruled her out as his VP, saying “MAGA, or I, will never go for [Haley].”
The two also have differing views on foreign policy. Haley has been a staunch supporter of sending more military aid to Ukraine, even as an increasing number of Republicans oppose it. Trump promised that he would, if elected, negotiated peace within “24 hours.”
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy
Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy speaks at the Republican Party of Iowa's 2023 Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines, Iowa, Friday, July 28, 2023.
© AP Photo / Charlie Neibergall
A political outsider and businessman, Ramaswamy’s 2020 campaign shares a lot in common with Trump’s 2016 bid. He appeals to libertarians and other swing voters and in the same poll that showed only 1% of 2020 Trump voters wanted Taylor-Greene to be Vice President, Vivek Ramaswamy easily led the field with 30%. “Don’t Know” received second place at 17%.
Ramaswamy even has a chance to pull in some antiwar votes for Trump. He has been a consistent critic of the NATO-funded proxy war in Ukraine and was one of the first visible politicians to urge Ukraine to enter the negotiating table and cede some territory to Russia ito end the conflict.
While he has been a supporter of Israel, he has not gone as far as other Republican candidates, stressing that he supports the right to free speech for pro-Palestine protesters.
Trump also hinted that he is considering Ramaswamy as his pick, saying that he would be “very good” at the job.
He also passes the loyalty test. He called Donald Trump the “best president of the 21st century” and said he would immediately pardon Trump if he is elected as President.
All that said, his popularity has been waning as of late, with his unfavorability rating dramatically rising over the past few months, surpassing his favorability rating for the first time in September.
